Brokeback breaks out

Finally saw the gay cowboy movie, and you know what? I really, really liked it. It's easily one of my favorite movies of the year, beautifully shot, with great acting, and an intense story that defies expectations. Every time you think you have a sense of where it's going—based on where Hollywood movies usually go—this movie takes a slightly different path, and does so in a way that's note perfect, and not merely different for the sake of being different. The story is more powerful because it's subtle. It doesn't spell everything out for the audience, or the characters. The pace is slow but intense. The emotions involved are complicated and real and not easily resolved, and there are no false resolutions.

I was afraid that this movie was overhyped because of the desire to promote a film that's a love story about gay men, but it's a genuine classic. That it's a gay relationship isn't exactly irrelevant to the story, but all of the fuss about that aspect of the film overshadows a terrific love story and extremely well-crafted film, which is a shame. Even if it wins the Oscar, Brokeback will always have an unspoken asterisk, that it won because it featured gay characters. In fact, this would have been an important film if it was a heterosexual relationship.

It's also a relief—for the first time in several years, I actually liked the Best Picture frontrunner. With Brokeback as an anchor, I give the Academy a lot of respect for making brave choices this year, while, with the exception of Crash, nominating quality films.

Now on to my Oscar picks:

Actor, Leading: Tough choice between Ledger, Phoenix and Hoffman. I haven't seen Capote yet, but he's getting most of the buzz so I'll go with that. (How's that for an expert opinion?) Capote may not win another award, and Brokeback will be recognized elsewhere.
Actor, Supporting: This is going to be the first award for Brokeback, as Gylenhaal will take it. Giamatti was excellent in Cindarella Man, and that film was largely overlooked, so that's my sleeper pick.
Actress, Leading: Many thought Reese Witherspoon carried Walk the Line, and she's my pick. Judi Dench is an Academy favorite, so she could surprise.
Actress, Supporting: Michelle Williams had a small but memorable part in Brokeback, that'll be enough to get the Oscar.
Animated Feature: Tough choice between Wallace and Gromit and Corpse Bride. My money's on Tim Burton's Corpse (that is, his movie, and his actual dead body) because he has more of a track record and the Academy likes to reward familiar names.
Art Direction: Good Night and Good Luck's period details felt exceptionally real and the setting was almost a character in the story.
Cinematography: Brokeback's the clear choice here. It's a beautifully shot film.
Costume Design: It probably should be Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, but this is a chance to recognize Mrs. Henderson Presents. I'll take Charlie, but this is a tough one to predict.
Directing: It's Brokeback's year. Spielberg (for Munich) has a shot, but Ang Lee should win.
Documentary Feature: March of the Penguins.
Film Editing: I'll bite my tongue and predict a win for Crash here, because the editors juggled multiple storylines, which made it a trickier (if not better) editing job than the other nominees. I have a funny feeling Munich could win here, that's my backup pick.
Foreign Film: Paradise Now. In a political year for the Academy, this film about the Palestine/Israel conflict will take the award. It's also the most successful of the nominees (at least here in the U.S.) and that usually foreshadows a win in this category.
Makeup: Convincingly aging Heath Ledger and Jake Gylenhaal was the best makeup job of the year, but Brokeback isn't nominated. Give this one to Star Wars.
Original Score: Look for either Brokeback or Munich here. I'm going with Munich because it's by Oscar vet John Williams.
Original Song: Odd that there are only three choices--and I can't recall hearing any of the songs. I've got to go with Hustle and Flow's "It's Hard Out There For a Pimp," if only because it would be great to hear that read by the presenter. Hopefully they'll have Dame Judie Dench hand this one out.
Best Picture: Brokeback. My sleeper pick? If there's a backlash against all of this year's political (or politically correct) films, Munich will win.
Sound Editing: Give this one to King Kong.
Sound Mixing: Eh, who knows. I'll go with Walk the Line, in recognition of that film's excellent music.
Visual Effects: It's got to be King Kong. As a side note, how pissed do you think Peter Jackson was he found out his film wasn't nominated for any major categories? (Naomi Watts and Jack Black need better publicists.) He seems like the type of egomaniac who would be bothered by that type of thing. And he must also be wondering, was King Kong really worse than the Lord of the Rings movies? Kong may have been overlong, but at least it wasn't nine hours.
Screenplay, Adapted: Brokeback. It's hard to imagine what this script was like on paper, because so much of the story was unspoken. But it should win here. Munich is also a possibility.
Screenplay, Original: This is a tough category to predict, but my guess is Good Night and Good Luck, because it won't win any of the major categories. This tends to be a category that rewards movies that fly below the radar of other categories, so The Squid and the Whale is a sleeper.

By my tally, that would be six awards for the gay cowboy movie, not a bad haul. The Oscars are only a couple of days away, so all will soon be revealed.