taking back the Northeast
Interesting article by Raymond Hernandez in today's N.Y. Times about how Dems hope to take back the House by focusing on Congressional districts in the relatively liberal Northeast.
In eight of the 12 districts being targeted, Kerry received more votes than Bush in the 2004 Presidential election. With Bush looking much more vulnerable now than he did a couple of years ago, and with the President polling far worse throughout states like New York and Connecticut than elsewhere in the country, Democrats hope to gain ground by tying local Republican leaders with Bush.
Is it possible that Dems have actually hit on a strategy that could work?
Maybe. The challenge will be unseating long-standing House incumbents—never an easy task, because in local races name recognition (going back decades, in some cases) is often a more powerful motivator than party affiliation. Incumbents almost never lose in the House.
Another challenge is financial. Incumbents have access to more money. The Times cites the Connecticut 5th as a district where the incumbent has $2.5 million, more than three times as much as her challenger. Both candidates are receiving support from the national party leaders.
More bad news: Democrats are down 15 seats in the House, so even if this strategy is successful (like, if they can grab 8 of the 12 seats the Times mentions), there'll still be a long way to go.
Even so, it does create some hope for this fall's midterm elections.
In eight of the 12 districts being targeted, Kerry received more votes than Bush in the 2004 Presidential election. With Bush looking much more vulnerable now than he did a couple of years ago, and with the President polling far worse throughout states like New York and Connecticut than elsewhere in the country, Democrats hope to gain ground by tying local Republican leaders with Bush.
Is it possible that Dems have actually hit on a strategy that could work?
Maybe. The challenge will be unseating long-standing House incumbents—never an easy task, because in local races name recognition (going back decades, in some cases) is often a more powerful motivator than party affiliation. Incumbents almost never lose in the House.
Another challenge is financial. Incumbents have access to more money. The Times cites the Connecticut 5th as a district where the incumbent has $2.5 million, more than three times as much as her challenger. Both candidates are receiving support from the national party leaders.
More bad news: Democrats are down 15 seats in the House, so even if this strategy is successful (like, if they can grab 8 of the 12 seats the Times mentions), there'll still be a long way to go.
Even so, it does create some hope for this fall's midterm elections.
posted by Zackattack at 12:48 PM
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