new poll offers clues about '06, '08
A new N.Y. Times/CBS News poll was released today, and the news is bleak for the party in power. Things haven't exactly gone from bad to worse; to put it more precisely, and in words Bush might use, they've gone "from worse to worser."
Here are some highlights from the poll:
• Bush's overall approval down to 31%. As the Times points out, in the last 50 years only Nixon and Carter have ever had lower approval ratings.
• Bush's handling of the following issues each polled at less than 30%: Iraq, foreign policy, the economy, immigration, and gas prices (only 13%).
• Only 23 percent think our country is on the right track. This is a historically bad figure. By comparison, before the "Republican Revolution" in the '94 midterm elections, 30 percent thought our country was on the right track. Bush would kill for 30 percent right now.
• Along the same lines, only 23 percent approve of the job Congress is doing. Although, prehaps predictably, Americans aren't blaming themselves: despite negative feelings toward Congress as a whole, 53 percent approve (and only 31 percent disapprove) of their individual representative. These figures show how tough it will be to win back a majority in the House, but the comparison to '94 is once again favorable. Before that election, 56 percent held positive views of their representative.
• More good news: 36 percent see their vote this fall primarily as a chance to indirectly vote against Bush, while only 45 percent say thier vote for a Congressman will not reflect their approval or disapproval of the Prez. Think about that for a second: almost as many people say they plan to use their vote this fall to penalize Bush, as to evaluate the candidate they'll actually cast a vote for.
• Here's a slightly surprising tidbit that could influence 2008: despite the huge gains by Democrats, some prominent figures have actually seen their approval ratings decline. Don't expect to see Gore or Kerry do well if they run in the Democratic primary; they both have less than a 30 percent approval rating. Curiously, Kerry's approval rating is now 14 points lower (at 26 percent) than it was right after he lost the election.
You don't need to be an expert to see that things look good for the Democrats, but we're still six months away from the election. But then, considering the incompetence of the Bush administration—especially in the last couple of years—things could actually look even better for Dems when November rolls around.
And as far as '08, not only is that still years—and hundreds of news cycles—away, but this poll reinforces the idea that Dems need some new blood; more to the point, they need someone to emerge as a viable alternative to Hillary, if for no other reason than to whip her into shape by forcing her to win a tough primary campaign.
Here are some highlights from the poll:
• Bush's overall approval down to 31%. As the Times points out, in the last 50 years only Nixon and Carter have ever had lower approval ratings.
• Bush's handling of the following issues each polled at less than 30%: Iraq, foreign policy, the economy, immigration, and gas prices (only 13%).
• Only 23 percent think our country is on the right track. This is a historically bad figure. By comparison, before the "Republican Revolution" in the '94 midterm elections, 30 percent thought our country was on the right track. Bush would kill for 30 percent right now.
• Along the same lines, only 23 percent approve of the job Congress is doing. Although, prehaps predictably, Americans aren't blaming themselves: despite negative feelings toward Congress as a whole, 53 percent approve (and only 31 percent disapprove) of their individual representative. These figures show how tough it will be to win back a majority in the House, but the comparison to '94 is once again favorable. Before that election, 56 percent held positive views of their representative.
• More good news: 36 percent see their vote this fall primarily as a chance to indirectly vote against Bush, while only 45 percent say thier vote for a Congressman will not reflect their approval or disapproval of the Prez. Think about that for a second: almost as many people say they plan to use their vote this fall to penalize Bush, as to evaluate the candidate they'll actually cast a vote for.
• Here's a slightly surprising tidbit that could influence 2008: despite the huge gains by Democrats, some prominent figures have actually seen their approval ratings decline. Don't expect to see Gore or Kerry do well if they run in the Democratic primary; they both have less than a 30 percent approval rating. Curiously, Kerry's approval rating is now 14 points lower (at 26 percent) than it was right after he lost the election.
You don't need to be an expert to see that things look good for the Democrats, but we're still six months away from the election. But then, considering the incompetence of the Bush administration—especially in the last couple of years—things could actually look even better for Dems when November rolls around.
And as far as '08, not only is that still years—and hundreds of news cycles—away, but this poll reinforces the idea that Dems need some new blood; more to the point, they need someone to emerge as a viable alternative to Hillary, if for no other reason than to whip her into shape by forcing her to win a tough primary campaign.
posted by Zackattack at 10:49 AM
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