swinging the soccer moms (and dads)

Interesting article by Timothy Egan in today's N.Y. Times suggests that as suburbs become more dense (and in turn, demographically diverse) they tend to skew Democratic. Meanwhile, as new suburbs or exurbs begin to emerge from what had previously been rural areas, their residents vote Republican in overwhelming numbers.

According to the article, both parties are focusing on these "swing suburbs" in this year's midterm elections. Democrats see an opening in historically Republican suburban districts in Chicago, Washington, Virginia, Colorado and elsewhere, while Republicans are targeting fast-growing new suburbs in many of those same states.

How will this play out politically?

...experts note that the exurbs in the fastest-growing counties provide a very small share of the nation's vote...In looking at the 50 biggest metropolitan areas, which have about 150 million people, Dr. Lang found that 90 million lived in a somewhat older suburb and that only 5.6 million lived in the exurbs, where Mr. Bush's vote was strongest.

This is good news for the Democrats, not just in this election, but moving forward. It's safe to assume that our suburbs will continue to become more dense, and if established suburbs grow more liberal as they become more crowded, this suggests nothing less than that our country is becoming more liberal, or at least more reliably Democratic.

The Republicans can have the exurbs—once they develop, they'll swing Democrat eventually, too.